BMSI Survey, UMKM Players Are Optimistic Towards 2021

BRI Research Institute - Optimism of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in doing business in the fourth quarter of 2020 is maintained. This was reflected in the BRI Micro & SME Index (BMSI) expectation index which was recorded above 100, namely 105.4.

The high expectation index shows that the majority of MSME players are optimistic that their business activities will improve in the first quarter of 2021. "The business world is quite optimistic towards 2021," said the President Director of BRI Sunarso when delivering the results of the BMSI survey in a virtual manner in Jakarta, Thursday, February 18, 2021.

On the other hand, the results of the BMSI survey this time also showed an increase in the confidence index of MSME players in the Government (IKP), namely 136.3, higher than the previous quarter which was at 126.8. Sunarso concluded that this figure shows that the majority of MSME actors give a good assessment of the Government's ability to carry out its duties.

In general, the MSME business performance in the fourth quarter of 2020 experienced a slight decline compared to the previous period, namely to 81.5, from the previous figure of 84.2. This decline is in line with the decline in GDP of minus 0.42 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2020.

Three factors were recorded as the causes of this decline in the performance of MSMEs, namely the impact of tightening social activities and community mobility, seasonal factors or business cycles, and the influence of weather that disrupted the production of MSMEs.

"The strict PSBB policy at the end of the third quarter of 2020, which was followed by a reduction in the Christmas and New Year 2020 holidays, made many consumers cancel their year-end holiday and shopping plans, which further suppressed the business performance of MSMEs," said Sunarso.

BMSI noted that the largest decrease occurred in production volume and sales value. This has an impact on the lower volume of input goods, finished goods, and the use of labor. By sector, almost all sectors experienced a decline, except for the manufacturing sector. The highest decline occurred in the hotel and restaurant sector.

Meanwhile, the decline in the agricultural sector is related to the start of the planting season, so that agricultural production, particularly food crops, has decreased. Furthermore, the BMSI level in the mining and construction sector was also lower than the previous quarter, due to high rainfall which disrupted construction (housing) activities and mining production activities.

BRI senior economist Anton Hendranata said the stimulus for the 2020 economic recovery in the form of restructuring, new loans, and a combination of the two have had a positive impact on business actors so that they do not fall deeper.

“When they don't fall deeper, they are supported by new loans, allowing them to get back into the business. Likewise, business actors who can still survive then get new loans, it is very effective for them to get up, "he said.

The Business Activity Survey and MSME Business Sentiment Bank Rakyat Indonesia has a sample of 5,000 MSME company respondents spread across all economic sectors and in 33 provinces. The sample selection is carried out using the stratified systematic random sampling method so that it can represent the business sector, province, and business scale. This survey was conducted by the BRI Research Institute on 11 January - 3 February 2021. Interviews were conducted by telephone with strict quality control so that the data collected was valid and reliable.

GN/MA